Will Aryna Sabalenka return to win a first BNP Paribas Open title?

Last year at Indian Wells, Madison Keys came in as the Australian Open champion, Aryna Sabalenka was the woman who lost to her in a close final Down Under, and Mirra Andreeva, winner in Dubai, was the woman on the move. We all remember how that ended: Sabalenka got her revenge on Keys, before Andreeva stunned her in the final.

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This year there’s a similar dynamic, with a couple of different names. Elena Rybakina is the Australian Open champ, Sabalenka is again the woman who lost to her in a close final Down Under, and Jessica Pegula, winner in Dubai, is the woman on the move.

Will we see a repeat of 2025, or will something entirely new play out? Here’s a look at the draw.

First Quarter

Sabalenka will certainly be rested: She skipped all of February and hasn’t played since the final in Melbourne. The question then becomes: Will she also be rusty? She has never won Indian Wells, but she has been to the final two of the last three years.

Her early draw should help her find her rhythm. The first seed she could face is Maya Joint, who has face-planted coming out of the gates in 2026. The American-turned-Australian is 2-7 and has lost four straight first-rounders. After that, Sabalenka might face Iva Jovic, a teen she dismissed 6-3, 6-0 in Australia.

But Sabalenka doesn’t typically cruise, unruffled, through a tournament, and there are potential bumps in her road. She could play Naomi Osaka in the fourth round—they haven’t met since the 2018 US Open—and either Amanda Anisimova or Victoria Mboko in the quarters.

Question Mark: Anisimova. She has mostly maintained her Top 5 form in 2026, but IW has been a problem for her. She’s just 7-6 there, and hasn’t been past the second round since 2021.

Potential second-round match to watch: Jovic vs. Sloane Stephens

Potential third-round match to watch: Anisimova vs. Emma Raducanu

Quarterfinal: Sabalenka vs. Anisimova

Semifinalist: Sabalenka

Second Quarter

Who does Alex Eala play? That was, somewhat to my surprise, the question of the day on social media. It’s a surprise because Eala is just the 21st seed. But the interest in her is hardly a shock. Less than a year after her 2025 breakout in Miami, the 20-year-old Philippines native already has one of the biggest and loudest fanbases in the sport.

Now we know: Eala will play either Zhang Shuai or Dayana Yastremska. Whether she’s favored in that is anyone’s guess. She tends to run hot and cold from one set to the next.

If Eala does win, she might play this section’s top seed, Coco Gauff. Lots of eyes will be on Coco, too, of course. The U.S. No. 1 is playing in the States for the first time in 2026, and her serve is still a cause for concern for the home fans.

That said, there’s opportunity here for Gauff. She’s only defending fourth-round points from last year, and her draw does not present a murderer’s row of top opponents. The other seeds in this quarter are Eala, Shnaider, Noskova, Alexandrova, Tauson, Wang Xinyu, and Paolini. Like last year, Paolini is off to a slow start in 2026.

But Gauff could have an interesting first round vs. Bianca Andreescu, champion here in 2019. Gauff won their only meeting, in three sets, in 2022.

Sleeper: Linda Noskova. The 21-year-old Czech is too talented not have a breakthrough someday. She could play Coco in the round of 16.

Potential second-round match to watch: Gauff vs. Andreescu

Quarterfinal: Gauff vs. Paolini

Semifinalist: Gauff

Third Quarter

Is Pegula this year’s Andreeva? Granted, the American is 14 years older than the Russian, and her success is not a surprise to anyone. But she has been playing with steadily increasing self-assurance for much of the past year, and now she’s closing in on Gauff at No. 4 in the world.

That kind of form doesn’t always translate to success at the biggest events for Pegula. Last summer she looked like a favorite at Wimbledon, only to crash out in the first round. And while you might think she’ll feel at home on U.S. hard courts, she’s just 8-7 at Indian Wells.

A bigger problem for Pegula may be her draw. She’s in the same section with Rybakina, who has won their last three matches, including their Australian Open semifinal in January. Rybakina has come down to earth since then, but the last time she made the final in Melbourne, in 2023, she followed it up by winning the title in Indian Wells.

Player Who Could Use a Win, Any Win: Emma Navarro

Potential Second-Round Match to Watch: Madison Keys vs. Venus Williams

Quarterfinal: Rybakina vs. Pegula

Semifinalist: Pegula

Fourth Quarter

Count Iga Swiatek as an Indian Wells lover. She says she can’t wait to get to the desert each season, and back onto the slow hard courts where she has won twice.

In each of her winning years, though, she arrived with at least one title under belt. This year she does have a team win in the United Cup, but she’s only played two individual events, and hasn’t won either. She skipped Dubai to try to get herself sorted for IW.

Swiatek will need to find her A-game if she’s going to win the title, because her quarter is close to loaded. She might play Maria Sakkari in the third round; Karolina Muchova or Zheng Qinwen in the fourth; and possibly Andreeva or Elena Svitolina in the quarters.

Muchova just won a title in Doha, and Svitolina is 15-3 in 2026.

Wild Card: Jen Brady. The 30-year-old Pennsylvania native will start against Antonia Ruzic

Quarterfinal: Swiatek vs. Svitolina

Semifinalist: Swiatek

Champion: Sabalenka d. Pegula