Will Jannik Sinner and Rafael Jodar line up a QF showdown? | Madrid Preview & Picks

Jannik Sinner vs. Cam Norrie

In eight years on tour together, the Italian and the Brit have never played. On paper, their first meeting doesn’t look as if it will be much of a competitive contest.

Sinner is No. 1; Norrie is No. 23. Sinner has won 19 straight matches and three straight titles; Norrie is 14-9 for the year, and his last tournament win came in 2023. Sinner has the better serve, better forehand, and better backhand. And he’s six years younger.

👉 Stream live on the Tennis Channel app! (Approx. start time 5:00AM ET)

What’s left for Norrie? Despite his middling record, it should be said that he has been rising in the rankings; as of last July, he was in the mid-80s. Two of his five career titles have come on clay. Most important, he’s a pesky player, stubborn competitor, and inveterate fist-pumper. His speed, effort, and craft have worked well against the tour’s other top player, Carlos Alcaraz.

Against Sinner, Norrie will be scrambling to return serves, stay in rallies, and win any point he possibly can. But that’s kinda what he does best. Winner: Sinner

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Hailey Baptiste

At 24, Baptiste has reached a point in her career where she’s facing off against players of Sabalenka’s stature on a regular basis. After not playing the world No. 1 at all for years, this will be her second crack at her in the span of two months. It may not feel like it on the court, but this is a reward for success.

Baptiste, a D.C. native, is the latest U.S. player to climb the rankings—she’s a career-high No. 32—and put herself near the business end of big tournaments. In Miami, she beat Svitolina and Ostapenko before losing to Sabalenka in the quarters. In Madrid, she has beaten two more Top 20 opponents, Paolini and Bencic, to set up another quarterfinal with Sabalenka.

👉 Stream live on the Tennis Channel app! (Approx. start time 2:00PM ET)

Their match in Miami was a sharply contested 6-4, 6-4 win for Sabalenka. Baptiste has an equally heavy serve and forehand, can hit her backhand for flat winners, and may have a better transition and front-court game than the top seed. But in their last match, when it came down to the crunch, she was a little less confident in herself, and a little more error-prone, than Sabalenka.

That loss should be valuable experience for Baptiste in the her second go-round. But right now, after 15 straight wins, that’s not enough to pick against Sabalenka. Winner: Sabalenka

Rafael Jodar vs. Vit Kopriva

This feels like the definition of a trap match. Jodar, a 19-year-old rookie playing in his hometown, has beaten No. 5 seed Alex De Minaur and No. 27 seed Joao Fonseca in front of raucous evening crowds. If he wins again, there’s a good chance he’ll face Sinner in a blockbuster quarterfinal.

But there's one person still standing in his way: A 66th-ranked, 28-year-old tennis lifer named Vit Kopriva. It would be tempting for Jodar to look past Kopriva—at least for a minute or two—and on to bigger things.

👉 Stream live on the Tennis Channel app! (Approx. start time 10:00AM ET)

That, of course, would be a mistake. Kopriva, at 5’10, 152 pounds, may not be a physical specimen. But he’s an effort guy who typically gives everything he has. He likes clay, he likes rallies, and he can create from the baseline. Earlier this year, he made the semis at the 500 in Rio, and earlier this week, he knocked out 2024 Madrid champion Andrey Rublev.

In other words, Kopriva is a guy who could make Jodar and his fans’ lives annoyingly difficult on Tuesday. But the kid doesn’t seem like someone who loses focus easily. Winner: Jodar