When Norrie reached the 2022 Wimbledon semifinals, points were not awarded that year.

Carlos Alcaraz is used to having the fans in his corner, but he won’t be able to win all the Brits over Tuesday in his quarterfinal showdown with Cameron Norrie at Wimbledon. Norrie will enjoy plenty of support on Centre Court, and he’ll do so on a surface where he should be able to give Alcaraz some trouble. That’s why I’m grabbing some plus-money odds on the Brit to win a set.

With the possible exception of his 6-1, 6-4, 6-4 win over Oliver Tarvet in the second round, none of Alcaraz’s wins at Wimbledon have been straightforward. Fabio Fognini took him to a fifth set in the first round, and he needed four sets to get by Jan-Lennard Struff and Andrey Rublev in his last two matches. Alcaraz has always been a little guilty of playing with his food in matches. Aleksandar Vukic, who recently lost in straight sets against Jannik Sinner, did a good job of illustrating what separates the Spaniard from the Italian. He said that Sinner suffocates opponents and exposes all weaknesses. Alcaraz, for all his excellence, gives opponents opportunities to get into matches.

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In this match, Alcaraz really can’t afford to take his foot off the gas. Norrie is too opportunistic, his backhand is lethal on grass, and he’s all systems go on every single point. He’s not going to roll over and let Alcaraz have anything for free. Norrie is one of the sport’s greatest competitors, and he’s going to make this interesting if he’s just having a decent day as a server.

Norrie has also had success against Alcaraz in the past. The Brit won their last meeting, 5-7, 6-4, 7-5, on clay in Rio de Janeiro, and has now won two of their last three matches. He has also won at least a set in three of their last four matches.

Norrie is going to head to the court with confidence, momentum—and a game plan that should give Alcaraz some problems. Let’s hope all of that is enough for the 29-year-old to get on the scoreboard.

Pick: Norrie To Win A Set (+109)