Wimbledon Betting Preview: Grigor Dimitrov vs. Corentin Moutet

Grigor Dimitrov was impressive in his 6-2, 6-3, 6-4 first-round victory at Wimbledon over Yoshihito Nishioka. But his next match, with Corentin Moutet, is going to be a lot tougher. Moutet is 8-2 on grass in 2025, and he has the type of game that can trouble an older, injury-prone player like Dimitrov.

With that in mind, I’m taking a shot on Moutet to win this match at a tantalizing +205 price.

Dimitrov is one of the best grass-court players in the world when he’s healthy, so there’s some risk in backing Moutet. In Dimitrov’s career, he’s an impressive 48-34 on the surface. He has also been to the semifinals at Wimbledon, even if that was 11 years ago. Dimitrov’s slice backhand is a huge weapon on the grass, as it stays low and knifes through the court. He’s also an incredible server when he’s in rhythm.

The issue with Dimitrov is that he does have four retirements since the start of 2025—he just hasn’t been able to keep his body right. One of those retirements also happened to come as recently as Roland Garros, which is why the Bulgarian wasn’t able to play in any of the grass-court events leading up to Wimbledon.

Moutet, one of the tour's more diminutive players, will have little issue getting low to dealing Dimitrov's slice. Moutet also has a break percentage of 20.4% on grass over the last 52 weeks—a pretty good number. He’s going to fight to make Dimitrov work for every hold. And Moutet is a surprisingly good server on this surface, as he’s holding at 85.1% on grass over the last 52 weeks. Moutet doesn’t have the power of some of the other players on tour, but he’s good at hitting his spots. He also gets some good spin on his serves, dragging opponents off the court. From there, he’s good at either coming to the net to put points away, or coming up with a big plus-one shot to take control of the rally.

Moutet’s baseline game could also test Dimitrov’s fitness in a big way. TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations have Moutet playing with Shot Variation 41% of the time, and 44% of the time on grass. The tour average is 19%. That means that Moutet mixes up his shots with the best of them, hitting slice groundstrokes, short slices, dropshots, angled shots and shots at the net. The eye test backs that up, with the Frenchman being a legitimate magician on the court. So, Moutet is going to have Dimitrov running and changing directions a lot, and that’ll be tough on the Bulgarian if his body isn’t 100%.

I just don’t think Moutet should be available at +200 or so here. He beat Taylor Fritz, one of the favorites in London, on this surface at Queen’s Club. He’s also 2-0 against Dimitrov, with one of those wins coming at Wimbledon in 2019. He’s extremely live to win this. So, even if you risk half of what you normally do on this play, it’s definitely one that’s worth trying.

Pick: Moutet ML (+205)