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Taylor Fritz, also known as the “King of Grass” in Eastbourne, is set to take on Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in his opening-round match at Wimbledon. Fritz is a pretty significant favorite to win, and he could ultimately have a little too much all-around game for the Frenchman. However, there’s no denying that this is a brutal draw.

Mpetshi Perricard’s 9-13 record in 2025 might not tell a great story, but he has a 91.7% hold percentage on grass in his career. That will give any opponent nightmares. Mpetshi Perricard has also played 20 grass-court matches when factoring in qualifying contests—and has won at least one set in 16 of them. Many of those matches were best-of-three, too. That said, I don’t see this one being straightforward. That’s why the Over on 3.5 sets is a play, even at a juiced number.

Including qualifying matches Mpetshi Perricard has played between ‘s-Hertogenbosch, Stuttgart, Queen’s Club and Wimbledon, the massive server has played 20 tiebreakers. WIth his missile of a serve, it’s just extremely easy for him to play his way into tiebreaker scenarios. And considering how easily he wins points with the ball on his racquet, he tends to win a lot of those.

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As far as this match goes, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see at least two tiebreakers. Fritz will definitely win more return points over the course of this battle, but he’s not a good enough returner to win multiple return games. And once we do reach six-games all, Mpetshi Perricard should be able to steal at least one. Fritz can have all the advantages in the world from the back of the court, but the reality is that tiebreakers can be pretty random. Mpetshi Perricard is 7-5 in tiebreakers across the 11 main-draw matches the 21-year-old has played at the Slam level. Fritz, meanwhile, is just 7-12 in 'breakers since the start of 2025.

It’s also fair to wonder whether Fritz will will bring his A-game right out the gates. While the American is clearly in tremendous form, he’s one of the only players that enters this event having played a significant number of matches. His title runs in Stuttgart and Eastbourne meant eight matches played in two weeks, and Fritz has struggled to stay healthy this season. So, will the world No. 5 have a full tank entering this match?

Fritz should get the job done. But when I saw his draw, I thought he’d be on Upset Watch against Mpetshi Perricard and Gabriel Diallo. And while I hope to be wrong, I at least think he’ll be pushed in both matches. That said, this could be a long one.

Pick: Over 3.5 Sets (-161)