Wimbledon Women's Semifinals Betting Preview: Anisimova vs. Sabalenka, Swiatek vs. Bencic

On Thursday, July 10th, we'll find out who will be meeting in the 2025 Wimbledon final. In the first semifinal, Amanda Anisimova will look to upset Aryna Sabalenka. In the second, it'll be Belinda Bencic hoping to knock off Iga Swiatek. Keep reading for some thoughts on how these matches at the All England Club could play out, and the best bets on the board.

Amanda Anisimova vs. Aryna Sabalenka

While Sabalenka is one of the most dominant players on the WTA Tour, we've seen a notable gap between her performances on grass and elsewhere. While she remains the top grass-court player by Tennis Abstract’s Elo rating, her play on the surface is less convincing, as shown in recent matches where she was tested by Emma Raducanu, Elise Mertens and Laura Siegemund. All of them were wins, but none of them were easy for the world No. 1.

Anisimova holds a 5-3 career record against Sabalenka, including a straight-set win in Toronto in 2024. Their matches are often tightly contested, and Anisimova’s aggressive baseline game allows her to match Sabalenka’s power. If Anisimova serves well and limits her unforced errors, she has a real shot at taking a set or more.

Both players are known for their heavy hitting, but Anisimova’s backhand stands out as a major weapon, capable of dictating rallies and exploiting openings. But the mental aspect will be crucial here, as both players have shown tendencies to lose focus under pressure. If Anisimova maintains her composure, she could capitalize on Sabalenka’s lapses and make this another close contest.

Given their history and current form, backing Anisimova to win at least a set seems like a strong play, and an upset isn’t out of the question if she does a good job of attacking Sabalenka's second serves. So, if you’re feeling bold, sprinkle the +220 moneyline as well.

Pick: Anisimova +1.5 Sets (-139)

Belinda Bencic vs. Iga Swiatek

Swiatek’s impressive Wimbledon campaign has been a little surprising considering her history on faster surfaces. Previously, grass was her least successful surface, but she has found a rhythm on the green stuff this season. A strong showing at Bad Homburg gave her some momentum, and dominant wins over Danielle Collins, Clara Tauson and Liudmila Samsonova in her past three matches in SW19 show that she’s a different player now on turf.

Swiatek’s ability to handle big hitters and dictate play from the baseline has been tremendous, and it’s a notable improvement from past matches where she was bullied around by some of the WTA’s alphas. Her serve has also been a major weapon, as she’s leading the field in first-serve points won—an impressive feat over five matches.

By contrast, Bencic, while a smart and versatile player, shouldn't pose too many problems for Swiatek. The Pole holds a 3-1 head-to-head advantage, including a hard-fought win at Wimbledon in 2023, when the Swiss was the more reliable grass-courter. Bencic does have some punch, and she's an aggresive player in her own right. But she's not the same type of "see ball, hit ball" player that Swiatek has been losing to.

It’s just hard to imagine Bencic getting to Swiatek, as the Pole has more firepower, moves better and has been serving better. Swiatek has also won six sets in this tournament by a score of 6-2 or better. So, even if Bencic does manage to win a set, Swiatek can cover a 3.5-game spread.

Pick: Swiatek -3.5 Games (-161)