WTA Finals Preview: Coco Gauff, Zheng Qinwen face off for first year-end crown in Riyadh

If you went by the rankings—and the hopes of many fans like myself—this final was supposed to be a season-capping showdown between the WTA’s clear Top 2 of 2024, Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek.

Now we know that, like many other potential showdowns between these two women over the years, it wasn’t meant to be. Swiatek came in rusty after two months off and failed to qualify for the semifinals. Sabalenka may have clinched the No. 1 ranking a couple of matches too soon; once she locked that spot up in the middle of the tournament, she went 0-2.

Read More: WTA Finals Midterm Report: Sabalenka stamps her name on 2024, as Pegula’s shoulders slump

Instead of a battle between the best players of the present, we’ll get a battle between two players who may top the rankings in the near future. Gauff, 20, and Zheng, 22, have already shown they can win big events, such as the US Open (Gauff) and an Olympic gold medal (Zheng). This week, for the first time, they’ve shown they can survive an all-elite cast of opponents and make a final at the year-end championships.

Zheng made it here with her traditional full-swinging, spin-heavy power, but also with a newfound calm when adversity struck. Something clicked for her in her second match against Elena Rybakina, and she hasn’t dropped a set since. Her serve has led the way; in four matches, she has 35 aces.

In her 6-1, 6-1 win over Jasmine Paolini, Zheng rolled past an overmatched opponent without a glitch. Her 6-3, 7-5 win over Barbora Krejcikova in the semifinals wasn’t as one-sided, but her ability to avoid a second-set collapse was, if anything, more impressive. Up 6-3, 3-0, Zheng lost five of the next six games, and nearly gave the set away. But she didn’t. She found the confidence to stop Krejcikova’s momentum with a series of clutch forehands and first serves late in the set.

Read More: Zheng Qinwen holds off Barbora Krejcikova to reach WTA Finals final

“I don’t know what happened there,” Zheng said of her second-set stumble. “It was tricky because at 3-0 I think dropped my focus. Suddenly my performance goes down and she played more free. In that moment, I’m not panicked. I just say, ‘Get back my focus, just start at zero-zero, like nothing happened.”

“It shows that I’m mentally strong in that moment.”

Gauff’s run to the final has been similar. She has relied on her traditional strength—defense, instead of Zheng’s offense—while making the most of the confidence she has built up over her successful last month on tour. Gauff, who has been trying out changes to her serve and forehand, has hardly been perfect. She double faulted 11 times in one win, and has never really gotten consistent control of her forehand. Yet that didn’t stop her from beating Swiatek in the round-robin stage and Sabalenka in the semis on Friday.

Read More: Coco Gauff solves Aryna Sabalenka for first final at WTA Finals

Against Sabalenka, Gauff showed again why this matchup works so well for her. Sabalenka’s pace and aggression allows Gauff to settle back and do what she likes to do best—run and defend and counterpunch and pass, without having to worry about going on the offensive or creating openings for herself. She and Sabalenka hit the same number of winners, 14, but Sabalenka had 20 more unforced errors.

“I just tried to stay in it,” was Gauff’s smiling assessment of her scrambling, one-more-ball-back victory.

Zheng and Gauff have played once, on clay in Rome this spring, and Gauff won 7-6 (4), 6-1. Both women have been successful on clay and hard courts, so the surface switch for this match may not mean much. A faster court may speed up Zheng’s attack, but it may also add some zip to Gauff’s counterpunches.

This will be the first year-end final for both. Gauff says she’s not nervous, and that the fall season is “just a plus,” however it happens to go. That relaxed attitude may be a big reason she’s been so successful over the past four weeks. Zheng says she has kept “her motivations pretty high” through a long season, and she’ll see this as a stepping stone to a first Slam title next year.

The question to me is whether Zheng, even if her serve keeps clicking, has enough first-strike firepower to hit Gauff off the court for two sets. I’ll play the percentages and say no.

Winner: Gauff