WTA Preview: No place like Rome for Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka seeks pre-RG sweep

After three years as the No. 2 to Iga Swiatek’s No. 1, Aryna Sabalenka has finally, fully flipped that script in 2025. Now comes the biggest test of her new superiority: Can she extend it to clay, where Swiatek has dominated for half a decade?

So far, so good: While Sabalenka has won a title in Madrid and reached a final in Stuttgart, Swiatek’s level has dropped—first gradually, then precipitously—during those two events. But we can’t just count Iga out for Roland Garros, after all she’s done on the surface, can we?

The two will have one more crack at preparing for Paris, and possibly going up against each other, in Rome. Here’s a look ahead at who they may face, and who has the best chance to turn this clay season into a three- or four-woman race.

1. For Swiatek, there’s no place like Rome

Her name is synonymous with Roland Garros, but she may be even better at the Foro Italico. Swiatek has won the title there three of the past four years, and her only loss was a retirement. She’s dropped just one set during that time, she has two one-sided wins over Sabalenka, and she won her first final, over Karolina Pliskova in 2021, 6-0, 6-0. The clay is clearly better suited to her game than the faster stuff in Madrid.

So if Swiatek is looking for a place to get her game together, Rome would seem to be it. The good news for her is that her problems don’t appear to be physical; it was her rhythm, especially on her forehand, that was off in her double-breadstick loss to Coco Gauff in Madrid.

Granted, it was way off, and probably not something that’s entirely fixable in a couple of matches. But if tests are what she’s after, her draw should provide them. Madison Keys, Elina Svitolina, Paula Badosa, and Danielle Collins are in her quarter. The good news is that Iga’s personal kryptonite, Jelena Ostapenko, is not.

2. Sabalenka is playing well; but well enough for a Madrid-Rome double?

Sabalenka, unlike Swiatek, prefers the faster conditions in Madrid to those in Rome. She’s a three-time champion at the former, and is just 9-6 at the latter. But if there’s ever a moment for her to win her first title at the Foro, this would seem to be it. She leads the tour in match wins with 31, and has made the finals of six of the eight tournaments she’s played. With Swiatek slumping, there’s no one close to her on a regular basis.

Still, there may be bumps in her road in Rome. Sabalenka will start against one of two hard-hitters, Dayana Yastremska or Anastasia Potapova. After that, she could play Sofia Kenin, who beat her in Rome in 2023. Her possible quarterfinal opponents include Elena Rybakina and Qinwen Zheng. And Coco Gauff and Mirra Andreeva are in her half.

Right now, Sabalenka may be a narrow favorite to win her first title at the French; a win in Rome would make her a clear one.

3. Who else might throw their hats in the Roland Garros ring?

While Swiatek and Sabalenka are the top contenders for Paris, both have their vulnerabilities. Swiatek struggled to keep the ball in the court, or anywhere near it, in her Madrid semifinal, while Sabalenka has never made a final at RG.

Two Americans, Gauff and Jessica Pegula, are ranked third and fourth at the moment, and have shown promising signs this spring. Pegula won 17 of 19 matches in March and April, while Gauff beat Andreeva and Swiatek on her way to the Madrid final.

Jasmine Paolini, finalist last year in Paris, had a slow start to the season, but she made the semis in Miami and Stuttgart. We’ll see what she can do in front of the home folks in Rome. Last year she went out in the first round, but her draw looks decent this time.

Zheng, who won Olympic gold at RG last year; Ostapenko, who won the title there in 2017; and Keys, a Rome finalist eight years ago, can always catch lightning in a bottle.

But the most prominent and promising outside-chance contender in Rome and Paris is the 17-year-old Andreeva. After winning back to back WTA 1000 titles in Dubai and Indian Wells, and beating Sabalenka and Swiatek along the way, the young Russian has cooled off a bit. But the talent isn’t going anywhere.