WTA Rome Betting Preview: Will Iga Swiatek get right at the Internazionali BNL d'Italia? 

After a week in which Aryna Sabalenka won her third Mutua Madrid Open title, the top players in the world are in Rome for the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. This is the final clay-court WTA 1000 of the season, and it’s one that has been dominated by Iga Swiatek. The Pole has won it in three of the last four years, and the slow conditions suit her game perfectly. But with Swiatek playing some shaky tennis heading into this year’s tournament, plenty of other players will feel they have a shot at heading into Roland Garros with some major momentum.

Let’s get into it in this edition of Game, Set, Bet, presented by BetMGM, with a Rome betting preview, a breakdown of the court conditions, our players to watch and a pick to win.

Recent Internazionali BNL d’Italia Open Winners

• 2020: Simona Halep
• 2021: Iga Swiatek
• 2022: Iga Swiatek
• 2023: Elena Rybakina
• 2024: Iga Swiatek

Internazionali BNL d’Italia Betting Odds

• Iga Swiatek (+225)
• Aryna Sabalenka (+275)
• Coco Gauff (+800)
• Mirra Andreeva (+900)
• Elena Rybakina (16-1)
• Jessica Pegula (25-1)
• Madison Keys (28-1)
• Qinwen Zheng (33-1)
• Jasmine Paolini (33-1)
• Elina Svitolina (33-1)

(For all of the odds, head over to BetMGM)

Internazionali BNL d’Italia Conditions

Altitude was the story of the Mutua Madrid Open, as that event plays faster than most of the clay-court tournaments on the calendar. We saw several big servers win big matches in Spain. Well, we’re back to sea level for this 1000-level event, meaning the conditions in Rome are gritty. So, get ready to put a little more weight into baseline play, and the ability to grind out long rallies.

Last year, Tennis Abstract had Rome with a Surface Speed of 0.67, which means the Ace Rate at the tournament was 33% lower than that of a tour-average event. While having a great serve is always a good thing, it’s not going to give players a massive leg up this week. You really have to have rally tolerance in Rome. If not, you better be striking the ball as clean as can be.

Internazionali BNL d’Italia Players To Watch

Jasmine Paolini (33-1): Paolini lost her second-round match against Maria Sakkari in Madrid, but she's still 10-3 since the start of March. The Italian's numbers are now looking a lot like they did last year, when she made two Grand Slam finals—her win percentage of 66.7% is identical to last year’s mark. She’s also starting to serve a little better, plus her break percentage (41.4%) is the highest it has been in a full season on the WTA Tour. Well, Paolini now returns home, where she’ll have a massive home-court advantage. As long as that doesn’t bring added pressure, she has the potential to make a deep run.

Elina Svitolina (33-1): Svitolina was on an 11-match winning streak before a 6-3, 7-5 loss to Sabalenka in the Madrid semifinals. The 30-year-old is now 22-7 since the start of 2025, good for a winning percentage of 75.9%. That’s the second-best winning percentage of the Ukrainian’s career, and you have to go all the way back to her 2017 season for one that can top it. Svitolina is playing some tremendous tennis right now, and it’s hard not to view her as a threat to make some noise over the next month or so. The only problem for Svitolina is that she will likely run into Swiatek in the Round of 16. The winner of that match should go to the final.

Internazionali BNL d’Italia Pick To Win

Iga Swiatek (+225): There’s no denying Swiatek is having a rough season when thinking about her otherworldly standards. However, she is still 26-8, and there are plenty of players that would sign up for that. Swiatek is also coming off a run to the quarterfinals in Madrid, and she earned wins over Linda Noskova, Diana Shnaider and Madison Keys. So, while everybody wants to talk about her getting demolished by Coco Gauff, it could be much worse. And Swiatek is now on the super slow clay courts where she dominates. She has won this tournament three times in the last four years, and her game should be at an optimal level in Rome. So, while I’m nervous about a potential early meeting with Svitolina, I can’t back off Swiatek at north of +200. She’s was +110 to win this tournament last year.