Can Grigor Dimitrov take Carlos Alcaraz out of his comfort zone? | Indian Wells Day 4 Previews

Before each day's play at Indian Wells, we'll preview three must-stream matches—which you can do, live and on demand, on the Tennis Channel app. Click here to subscribe.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Grigor Dimitrov

Alcaraz has started the year 12-0, which leaves him 29 wins short of Novak Djokovic's legendary run to open his 2011 campaign. But that doesn’t mean it’s too early for the media to start asking him whether the Serb’s 2011 mark is “a target that excites you.”

To his credit, Alcaraz said that just contemplating the idea of winning “four or five more tournaments, the biggest tournaments in the world,” makes him “realize and feel how impressive it is.”

Whether he cares or not, that won’t stop the countdown from continuing after each of his victories. The sports media loves few things as much as  we love a win streak.

The better question is why Alcaraz thinks he’s playing so well. He chalks it up to, as his countryman Rafael Nadal used to say, “being with calm.”

“On the court, I just control myself, and in a calm place I can find the solutions and I can go through,” he says.

Can Dimitrov take Alcaraz out of that comfort zone? He has done it before. While Alcaraz leads their head-to-head 4-2, Dimitrov has two wins over him on outdoor hard courts, including one in Miami in 2024. With his one-handed backhand, his improved serve, and his willingness to use the whole court, he has ways of disrupting Alcaraz’s pounding baseline rhythm that other players don’t.

A year ago at Indian Wells, though, Alcaraz seemed to get fed up with those disruptions, and rolled him unceremoniously, 6-1, 6-1. It will take a vast change in form by both men for Dimitrov to turn that around and come away with a win. Winner: Alcaraz

Jessica Pegula vs. Donna Vekic

Pegula is having another moment. By which I mean, she’s having another, “Can she take it to the next level?” moment. She has had a bunch of them over the past three or four years, which is a testament to her skill and her resilience. But while she’s currently ranked No. 5, has been as high as No. 3, and has been to a US Open final, so far she has fallen just short of the pinnacle of the sport.

So here she comes again. Pegula is 13-2 on the year. She made the Australian Open semifinals and pushed eventual champ Elena Rybakina through a 9-7 second-set tiebreaker. Two weeks ago she won a 1000 in Dubai, with wins over two very in-form opponents, Amanda Anisimova and Elina Svitolina.

Indian Wells will offer a different and potentially more difficult challenge. Pegula is just 8-7 here, and has never made the quarterfinals.

“It's always been really tough for me here,” she admits. “I think it’s one of the tougher tournaments, honestly, to win because of how drastic the conditions can change from morning to night, windy, cold, hot, dry.”

Pegula says she’s more adaptable than she once was. She’ll get her first chance to show it when she takes on Vekic during the evening session in Stadium 1. She and the Croatian have played twice, both times on grass, and Pegula won both in close two-setters.

By Saturday evening, conditions should be slower than they were for either of those grass-court encounters. Vekic would seem like a good opponent for Pegula. She hits a hard, but not overpowering ball, which should give the American a chance to counter-punch with pace. Vekic, who is ranked 103rd at the moment, is also a streakier player than the dialed-in version of Pegula we’ve seen to start the year. Winner: Pegula

Joao Fonseca vs. Karen Khachanov

At this time a year ago, Fonseca could do no wrong. He had jumped onto the big stage as an 18-year-old at the Australian Open, and backed that performance up with a title in Buenos Aires. Everywhere he went, including Indian Wells, the samba beat of his Brazilian fanbase followed in his wake.

By midway through 2025, though, that beat had grown a little fainter, as Fonseca learned the ropes of the tour, and learned that titles—or even just wins—don’t grow on trees. This year he returned to Indian Wells unseeded, recovering from a back injury, and sporting a 1-3 record in 2026.

The good news is that Fonseca says he’s healthy again, and his yellow-clad fans were back in force to help him through a tough first-round win over Raphael Collignon.

Next up is the 16th-seeded Khachanov. On the plus side for Fonseca, Khachanov arrived late for this tournament after getting stuck in Dubai. The bad news is that the Russian is 1-0 against him, and is ranked 19 spots higher (16 to 35). This match will feature some heavy forehand artillery; both guys can’t help but slug as hard as they can, as often as they can, from that side.

For Fonseca, a win here would give him back some of his 2025 momentum. But Khachanov, a 29-year-old veteran of many tennis wars, has a knack for facing down hostile crowds and sticking with the ground-stroke guns that got him there. Winner: Khachanov