Andrey Rublev falls to Francisco Cerundolo at Paris Masters, ATP Finals qualification at risk

In recent weeks, Andrey Rublev had fallen into the trap of regularly checking match results to see how they impacted the race to the Nitto ATP Finals.

“I've been constantly analyzing what could happen, watching who my opponents play against and things like that. It's stressful, but it's part of the sport,” he told Ziggo Sport ahead of the Rolex Paris Masters.

On Tuesday, Rublev’s bid to secure his place at the prestigious year-end event for a fifth straight season was put in jeopardy as he’ll now be left to watching how his fate plays out. Francisco Cerundulo ousted the No. 6 seed, 7-6 (6), 7-6 (5), in the second round.

In a rollercoaster opening set, Rublev saw his 5-2 lead go to waste when he failed to serve it out in the ninth game. Cerundolo caught fire to put the set on his racquet, only to drop serve when Rublev converted his fifth break chance of a 14-point game.

After losing the tiebreak, Rublev once again was unable to build off generating an early break. Down 2-4, the Argentine dug in, later saving three break points in another marathon game to reach 6-5.

To no surprise, neither player grabbed hold of the ensuing tiebreak. The returner won the first four points, and while the Russian recovered to erase a 2-4 deficit, was unable to stave off the first match point he faced. Cerundolo, in turn, clinched his fourth Top 10 win of the season and second over Rublev (Umag).

With Rublev’s latest loss, it opens the door for Alex de Minaur to leapfrog the 27-year-old for a Turin ticket. The Australian began the final ATP Masters 1000 event of the year 165 points behind Rublev and plays his first-round match against Cerundolo’s compatriot Mariano Navone later Tuesday.

Returning finalist Grigor Dimitrov can also join the ATP Finals conversation with another deep run inside Bercy Arena. Casper Ruud, one spot in front of Rublev coming in, now has more breathing room to work with and can do himself a big favor if he passes the inactive Novak Djokovic (currently No. 6 in the race) this week.

“The players who could prevent me from being in Turin are wonderful people. If I don't qualify, I'll be happy for them,” commented Rublev.

Soon after Cerundolo's victory, it was announced Taylor Fritz had become the fifth player to qualify. The top-ranked American joins Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev.

There are two ATP 250 events available to hopefuls seeking the final three places next week in Metz and Belgrade. Rublev did not initially enter either tournament, though could pursue a wild card should it impact his chances to make the eight-man field at Inalpi Arena.