Daniil Medvedev vs. Holger Rune: Where to Watch, Indian Wells Preview, Betting Odds

Where to Watch

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BNP Paribas Open Match Preview

Steve Tignor: A trip to Indian Wells, it’s clear now, was just what these two guys needed. Coming into this tournament, Rune and Medvedev were two of the more notable disappointments of 2025.

Rune was 6-6, and had only made it out of the second round once. In Acapulco the week before, he described himself as “furious and sad” after being forced to retire with a wrist injury.

Medvedev, meanwhile, was 8-5, had bowed out in the second round at the Australian Open, and was taking losses to little-known opponents like Mattia Bellucci and Hamad Medjedovic.

Now both guys are in the semis at a 1000, and have prevailed in a couple of tight contests that usually do wonders for a player’s confidence.

“Unbelievable,” Medvedev says. “Best tournament.”

After two straight finals and now a semifinal in Indian Wells, is he ready to embrace the surface that he has long derided as a clay court in disguise? Medvedev won’t go that far, but he will say that “I’m enjoying it more and more every year.”

He shouldn’t be too displeased by his semifinal opponent, either. Medvedev is 2-1 against Rune, and he won a close two-setter over him in the quarterfinals here last year. The Russian had some extended comments about the Dane on Thursday.

“Talent is really, like, strong, great,” Medvedev said of Rune. “Good slice, good drop shot, good volley. He can spin, he can play flat, he can serve well, he can kick well. I feel like he has every shot.”

So why isn’t he winning everything in sight? Medvedev has a theory about that.

“I wonder even if maybe sometimes it disturbs him, because when you have like that many arms, might even be tricky…Probably he knows sometimes he’s not consistent in beginning of tournaments, but when he’s like deep there, he’s a tough player to beat.”

Medvedev got a look at Rune’s arsenal up close when they met at Indian Wells last year. Their quarterfinal was a chess match and a war of attrition, filled with long rallies, slice backhands, and cat-and-mouse exchanges—two sets took two hours. It also featured, perhaps not surprisingly with these two semi-hotheads involved, a spicy passage of play. Rune hit a ball at Medvedev at close range; Medvedev didn’t see Rune apologize, and pointed two fingers at him, in the “eyes on you” gesture. The two made up at net, but the handshake from Rune at the end was icy.

It’s easy to imagine a similar set of events happening this Saturday, right down to the comically testy exchange. We’ll see if Rune wants to play chess with Medvedev again, or whether he takes a more aggressive tack. I’d recommend the latter. Winner: Medvedev

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Betting Odds

Medvedev is a -180 moneyline favorite; Rune is a +145 underdog.

(Odds from BetMGM as of 11:00 p.m. ET on Friday, March 14)

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