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For two guys in their mid-to-late 20s, who tend to go deep at big events, the Russian and the American haven’t run into each other often. Paul and Medvedev have played just four times; by far the most relevant of those matches came a year ago in the semifinals at Indian Wells. Paul, riding a wave of home fan energy, won the first set 6-1, before Medvedev dug his way out in a second-set tiebreaker and a 6-2 third set.

A year later, Medvedev is still ranked five spots higher (No. 6 to No. 11), but Paul has had the better 2025 so far, making the Australian Open quarterfinals and the Dallas semifinals. Medvedev, meanwhile, has started sluggishly at best, going out in the second round in Melbourne, and failing to get anything going in Doha or Dubai. All of which means this feels like an important match for both guys. For Paul, a win would mark another step up the ladder and toward the elite; for Medvedev, it might help shake him out of his mini-slump.

There’s also an interesting clash in styles here. Paul plays a textbook modern attacking game, relying on his speed, topspin forehand, and two-handed backhand to move into the court and close at net. Medvedev, by contrast, plays a game that is uniquely his own, based on consistency, wide-winged defense, and a strong serve.

On the one hand, Medvedev, a two-time runner-up at Indian Wells, is not a great matchup for Paul on these courts. On the other hand, Paul is not a great matchup for Medvedev in front of these fans. Winner: Paul—Steve Tignor

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Betting Odds

Medvedev is a -130 moneyline favorite; Paul is a +100 underdog.

To win the first set, Medvedev is -125 and Paul -105.

(Odds from BetMGM as of 12:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, March 11)

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