Holger Rune vs. Jack Draper: Where to Watch, Indian Wells Preview, Betting Odds

Where to Watch

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The winner of this match will win the BNP Paribas Open title for the first time. Rune is seeking his second Masters 1000 title of his career, while Dreaper is in search of his first.

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BNP Paribas Open Match Preview

Steve Tignor: At the start of 2025, if you had been told that the Indian Wells final would pit a 23-year-old against a 21-year-old, you would surely have guessed that the two players were Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. Instead of those Grand Slam champs, the title match will be between No. 13 Holger Rune and No. 14 Jack Draper.

There are a couple of very different reasons for this surprise meeting. First, Sinner is currently serving a suspension. Second, and more important, the post-Big 3 generation is still forming, as the ATP’s young talents learn the ropes and grow into their games.

Rune and Draper have had big wins and great runs over the past two years, but they’ve also been slowed by injury and inconsistency. This week they’ve showed that their ceilings remain a high as ever.

Rune has beaten two Top 10 seeds in Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas, both in straight sets. Against Medvedev, who reached the final here the last two years, Rune won with a Plan B. Instead of attacking the defensive-minded Russian, he essentially out-Medvedeved Medvedev. He engaged him in a grinding, slice-heavy, chess match, and prevailed in the long rallies where Medvedev usually thrives.

If anything, Draper has been even more impressive. He beat two higher-ranked home-country favorites in Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton, then knocked off No. 2 seed Carlos Alcaraz in three topsy-turvy sets in the semifinals. When Alcaraz tore through the second set and brought the crowd to its feet, Draper’s moment seemed to have passed. But to the surprise of most, he salvaged it by retaking control and breaking Alcaraz twice in the third set.

“He deserves to be Top 10,” Alcaraz said of Draper afterward. “He deserves to play a final in the Masters 1000. I’m happy about him because I didn’t doubt about his level, about himself. He’s ready to stay there for a long time. He’s ready to play for the big events, for the big tournaments.”

Rune and Draper have met once, in Cincinnati last summer, and Rune won 6-4, 6-2. The rallies were competitive, but Rune was always a step or a shot ahead. As he concedes now, though, that was a speedier hard court, and Draper is a better player today.

“It was very different conditions than here,” Rune says. “Much faster surface. Yeah, it was a good match for me. Again, he’s gained a lot of confidence. He’s been improving. He’s a lefty. Great serve. I think he’s been serving well this tournament. He’s gonna be excited.”

As for Draper, he sounded determined not to have a letdown after his win over Alcaraz.

“I’m looking forward to tomorrow already,” he said. “I’ll make sure I look after my recovery. That’s the thing with tennis. You’ve got to get over wins like today.”

Rune and Draper are No. 13 and No. 14 in the rankings, and they should be evenly matched. Draper’s serve is more of a weapon than it was when they played in Cincy, but it still hooks into Rune’s favorite shot, his two-handed backhand. Draper has the bigger forehand, but both guys are fast, strong, and athletic, and equally capable of closing at net. Both are playing with confidence at the moment, and like the big stage; but both can also throw in puzzlingly poor performances just when you expect it least.

Whose surge is more sustainable, and who may be closer to making a run at the Slams coning up in 2025? We’ll find out more on Sunday. Winner: Draper

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Betting Odds

Draper is a -160 moneyline favorite; Rune is a +125 underdog.

To win the first set, Draper is -155 and Rune is +110.

(Odds from BetMGM as of 11:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 15.)

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