Seven years later, Aryna Sabalenka and Naomi Osaka finally cross paths again

INDIAN WELLS, Calif. — Fueled by healthy displays of trademark baseline power and serving speed, accompanied by sparkles of eclecticism, Aryna Sabalenka today levelled her rivalry with Naomi Osaka at one victory apiece, in 80 minutes earning a 6-2, 6-4 victory in the round of 16 at the BNP Paribas Open.

“Yeah, I'm super happy with the performance today,” said Sabalenka, “the way I brought variety on court, that I made her guess most of the times, and of course happy with the serves, so I felt like it was a great performance for me.”

To say this rivalry is now dead-even is a literal truth and a figurative joke. Imagine two formidable tennis players, born within seven months of one another, who between them have won eight Grand Slam singles titles—but prior to today, had only played each other once. Such was the backdrop for this match between the first-seeded Sabalenka and the 16th-seeded Osaka.

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More than seven years ago, these two met in the round of 16 of the 2018 US Open. Each had just cracked the Top 20. On that Labor Day in New York, Osaka earned a 6-3, 2-6, 6-4 victory and went on to win the first of four majors she’d capture by January 2021. But the tremendous baseline power shown by each in that match triggered expectations that Osaka-Sabalenka would soon enough blossom into the WTA Tour’s next marquee rivalry.

I’d covered that US Open match. As I sat inside Louis Armstrong Stadium and took in so much skill and possibility, it was easy to imagine Osaka and Sabalenka growing old together, perhaps even years later laughing about their first of what at that moment held promise to be dozens of high-stakes encounters.

Alas, the two hardly marched in lockstep. Sabalenka’s first singles major came at the 2023 Australian Open. Meanwhile, following her Aussie victory in January ’21, Osaka did not advance past the third round of a major until last year’s US Open, when she reached the semis.

“That’s insane,” said Sabalenka as she reflected on the lengthy gap between their matches.

“Can you believe for so many years on tour we only played once? But I feel like I started doing better when she got pregnant.”

So as the two entered Stadium One just after 11:00 a.m. on Tuesday morning, I pondered Rip Van Winkle: What had time done to this once-nascent notion? What to make of the vastly different tennis roads taken by each of these two future Hall of Famers? More pointedly, on this day in the desert, what kind of tennis would result from each?

Again and again today, Sabalenka repeatedly posed tougher questions and provided better answers. While Osaka was able to occasionally match her in the power department, Sabalenka’s shots consistently landed deeper. Repeatedly, she ran Osaka into corners, took advantage of weak second serves, and in turn opened up the court for her customary brand of terminal groundstrokes.

There also came several crisp forehand volleys and additional displays of tactical acumen. One such example came when Sabalenka served the pivotal 4-3 game in the second set. A big serve fought off a break point. On two deuce points, Sabalenka ripped service winners down the T.  But then, holding an ad, Sabalenka opted to strike an 80 mph kick serve slow and wide to Osaka’s backhand. As the return came crosscourt, Sabalenka feathered a short one-handed slice, forcing Osaka forward—and extracting a long backhand to close out the game.

“I also feel like I was a little, like, flat-footed sometimes,” said Osaka, “because I expected the ball to be coming harder but then it didn't. She grunts the same way for every ball. I was, like, ‘Oh, my God, she tricked me.’”

“I was trying to change the rhythm and make sure that the ball comes back on her side different heights and speeds,” said Sabalenka. “So I think that was the key of the match.”

Two games later, Sabalenka served out the match at 30.

Despite the loss, Osaka was encouraged.  Having been through so much over the course of her career, Osaka might well be enjoying tennis more than she ever has. “Yeah, I mean, it was definitely really tough,” she said, “but honestly, my biggest takeaway is that I had a lot of fun, I hadn't gotten the opportunity to play on Stadium One, and to play against the No. 1 player, it was really cool.”

Let’s hope we don’t have to wait until 2033 for Sabalenka-Osaka III.

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